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USD/CAD Analysis: Will the Loonie Break Below 1.3400? | Fed Decision & Trade Talks in Focus

Market Overview

  • The Dogecoin usd predictioncurrency pair demonstrates limited volatility ahead of crucial economic events

  • Central bank policy divergence remains a key driver for forex markets

  • Trade negotiations between North American neighbors could influence CAD valuation

During Tuesday's European session, the USD/CAD exchange rate continues to oscillate within Monday's trading parameters, hovering near the 1.3575 level. This consolidation phase reflects market caution preceding Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee announcement.

Market consensus anticipates the US central bank will maintain its benchmark rate within the current 4.25%-4.50% band. Policymakers have emphasized the need for additional economic data before considering adjustments to monetary policy settings, particularly given ongoing fiscal policy evaluations.

The DXY index, measuring the dollar's performance against a basket of major currencies, shows minimal movement at 98.15 as traders adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Despite positive developments in bilateral trade discussions between Canadian and US officials, the loonie fails to gain significant traction against its American counterpart. Recent reports indicate both nations aim to finalize trade agreements within the coming month.

Canadian Dollar Performance Metrics

Comparative analysis reveals the CAD demonstrates relative weakness against commodity-linked currencies, particularly the Australian dollar. This performance pattern reflects shifting risk sentiment and commodity market dynamics.

Technical indicators continue to favor USD strength in the near term, though potential trade agreement breakthroughs could alter this trajectory. The Canadian economy's export dependence creates sensitivity to trade policy developments.

The currency pair approaches significant technical support near eight-month lows around 1.3540. Current price action suggests bearish momentum persists, with all relevant moving averages trending downward across various timeframes.

Momentum indicators reinforce this technical outlook, with the 14-day RSI maintaining position within the 20-40 range, typically associated with ongoing selling pressure.

Downside targets include psychological support at 1.3500, with potential extension toward September's 1.3420 low should current levels fail to hold. Conversely, sustained movement above 1.3820 would signal trend reversal possibilities, opening potential upside toward 1.3920 and 1.4000 resistance zones.

Technical Perspective

Chart analysis reveals the pair remains entrenched within a broader downtrend channel, with recent price action testing lower boundary support. Market participants will monitor these technical levels alongside fundamental developments for directional cues.